Kenya’s Presidential Re-run: What If Uhuru Is Not Declared The Winner?

The nullification of the August 8 presidential election threw Kenya into uncharted territory but worst still was Kenya’s opposition leader’s withdrawal from Kenya’s Presidential re-run of October 26.

Though Odinga’s withdrawal gives President Uhuru Kenyatta a better chance of winning the election unopposed, Odinga’s withdrawal created a deep rift between the supporters of Kenyatta’s Jubilee party and Odinga’s National Super Alliance.

To make matters worse, the police have repeatedly used excessive force to contain the activities of the National Super Alliance (NASA) supporters who have on several occasions, clashed with Jubilee supporters during demonstrations.

Read Also: Wafula Chebukati’s Conditions For The Repeat Presidential Election

These protests could very easily escalate into tribal violence given the ethnically divisive nature of Kenyan politics.

However, with Kenya’s Presidential re-run taking place in few days, there are growing speculations that the incumbent President could win the election. This as well raises the question: What if Uhuru is not declared the winner of the election?

Though this is nearly impossible, there are possibilities that this could happen and this could only happen if all the NASA counties boycott the election.

President Uhuru Kenyatta’s hopes of winning a second term are getting slimmer every day as it becomes clearer that he might not meet the Constitutional requirement. Worst still, NASA governors in a total of about 20 counties have openly declared that the much anticipated Kenya’s Presidential re-run will not hold.

Stamping their feet on the threat by Raila Odinga that there would be no election on October 26 which previously, had been vague, NASA leaders have continued to urge the party supporters to boycott the election ordered by the Supreme Court on grounds the IEBC is not ready to conduct a fair contest.

According to Kenya’s electoral law, a candidate must garner at least 50+1% of the total votes to be declared a winner. The winner will also need to garner 25% of total votes in 24 counties.

Looking at the August election which was cancelled, Uhuru appeared to have won in much of the counties belonging to the opposition party. But assuming the 20 counties completely boycott the fresh presidential poll, we are left with 27 counties.

Matters could get worse for Uhuru if more NASA politicians from opposition dominated counties continue to instil fear in their supporters not to participate in the poll.

Most NASA strongholds have declared that no Kenya’s Presidential re-run will take place with Siaya being the most vocal. The counties where NASA leaders have been recorded declaring there will be no election on October 26 include:

1. TaitaTaveta,
2. Kitui,
3. Machakos,
4. Makueni,
5. Turkana,
6. Vihiga
7. Mombasa,
8. Kilifi,
9. Kwale,
10. Tana River,
11. Lamu
12. Bungoma,
13. Kakamega
14. Busia
15. Siaya,
16. Kisumu,
17. Homa Bay,
18. Migori,
19. Kisii,
20. Nyamira.

Next Thursday’s election marks Kenya’s second attempt in three months to choose a leader after the supreme court overturned President Uhuru Kenyatta’s re-election in August, citing “irregularities and illegalities” in the transmission of results.

As Kenyans look forward to seeing what the future holds for the country from next week, the country’s electoral commission seems not to be ready for the elections yet.

Read Also: Repeat Election Officials Boycott Training In Nyanza As Attacks Increase

Last week, Kenya’s top election officials further dashed the peoples hope when they said that political intimidation and interference meant they could no longer guarantee the credibility of the vote.

Hours after one of the electoral body’s top official resigned and fled the country saying she feared for her life, Wafula Chebukati, chairman of the electoral commission, also threatened to quit, deepening a political crisis that risks upending one of Africa’s most stable states.

Mr Chebukati accused both the Uhuru-led government and the opposition of resorting to tactics that, he said, threatened to pitch Kenya into a “worse situation” than the violent aftermath of an election in 2007 that claimed more than 1,300 lives.